What about an umbrella? A useful tip for the new year

You are about to leave the house on the last day of the civil year, and the weather is deceptive. The following options are available to you:

1.  Go out without an umbrella and meet a full day of sunshine.

2.  Go out with an umbrella and meet a day that is all rainy.

3.  Go out with an umbrella and meet a full day of sunshine.

4.  Go out without an umbrella and meet a day that is all rainy.

Please take a few seconds to rank the results from most preferred to least preferred in descending order.

For the arrangement between options 1 and 2, here are the preferences between winter and summer. Options 3 and 4 offer a pleasant surprise:

For those who prefer Option 3, game theory has a term for it: minimax, or alternative to less evil. A full day of unused umbrellas is a reasonable alternative to dealing with heavy rain without an adequate response. For them, insurance is a preferable option, and when traveling abroad, a known restaurant is better than a culinary adventure.

Those who choose option 4 are advised to be brave in nature (or careless, as alternative 3 advocates will confirm), those who are willing to take a risk in order to get the best results. It is called “Maximax” in game theory. They are hopeless optimists.

My wish for the new civil year is for the cautious to dare once instead of making the right choice, for the daring, to smile as you are dripping water, and for all of us, to accept our decisions with love after giving them some thought.

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